Average predicted Columbia River runoff means no electricity deficit in 2008

January 18, 2008

The first official prediction of the 2008 “fuel supply” for the largest source of hydropower in the Northwest — Columbia River runoff — is optimistic, according to analysis by the Council.

The Council’s basis for an optimistic outlook is the first official water supply forecast for the Columbia River Basin in 2008. The Northwest River Forecast Center in Portland, a division of the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA), issued the forecast earlier this month. NOAA's forecast for Columbia River runoff measured at The Dalles Dam is 95 percent of average, or near normal.

“This is good news for the regional electricity supply and for consumers because hydropower dams in the Columbia River Basin provide about 75 percent of the region’s electricity under average runoff conditions, and hydropower is inexpensive compared to other types of power generation” Council Chair Bill Booth said.

Average or better-than-average runoff in the Columbia River Basin means that other types of electricity generation, such as power plants that burn fossil fuels, will not have to run as often as they would if less water, and therefore less hydropower, were available. Those power supplies all are more expensive than hydropower.

The anticipated runoff, while 95 percent of average for the Columbia River, is not uniform throughout the basin, an area the size of France that includes parts of seven states and British Columbia. The lowest runoff is expected at Brownlee Dam on the Snake River at only 70 percent of normal. The highest anticipated runoff is for the Umatilla and John Day rivers of Oregon at 114 and 108 percent of normal, respectively. Overall, the lowest runoff forecasts in the Columbia River Basin are along the Snake River plain in southern Idaho, predicted at less than 70 percent of normal. In fact, much of southern Idaho, eastern Oregon, and western Montana are in the 70-90 percent runoff range, NOAA reported. However, with the exception of river basins in much of western Montana, 2008 runoff forecasts for the entire northern half of the Columbia River Basin are in the 90-110 percent range.

According to the Council’s analysis of the anticipated runoff, the risk of curtailment due to an inadequate electricity supply should be low throughout 2008. Currently, the Northwest has an electricity surplus of about 2,900 average megawatts, or more than enough for two cities the size of Seattle. This assumes that electricity from independent power producers would be available to Northwest utilities. But even if it were not, the surplus still would be about 500 average megawatts, according to the analysis.

The Council is an agency of the states of Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington and is directed by the Northwest Power Act of 1980 to prepare a program to protect, mitigate and enhance fish and wildlife of the Columbia River Basin affected by hydropower dams while also assuring the region an adequate, efficient, economical and reliable power supply.

Contacts:

• , Chair, 208-660-4127
• , Information Officer, 503-222-5161